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Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis
(Pertmaster®)

Analyze, Mitigate and Manage Risk

  • Anticipate, mitigate & respond to negative events
  • Be prepared with proper contingency plans
  • Model risks that could effect cost and/or schedule
  • Obtain an objective view so you can be confident with your assessment
  • Take uncertainty out of your project
  • Easy integration with many scheduling tools

Problem

The whole field is often perceived as an unnecessary burden that has been imposed from the top down and brings no benefit. The immature and erroneous application of Opportunities & Risks Management by companies, that we frequently see, ensures that that is exactly what they get.

The scenario unfolds like this:

  • A requirement to pass a gate is to have a risk report
  • A spread sheet risk register has been compiled by circulating it to all stakeholders and contains a range of risks, from invasion by aliens to minor delays
  • At the 11th hour before the gate review risk software is purchased, or dusted off
  • A controls manager then tries to push the data into the software
  • Finally a scheduler is given the task of running it and producing a canned report
  • The requirement for the gate is ticked off.

No matter how much effort is put into planning and scheduling, projects rarely come in on time and on budget. A major study conducted by the Construction Owners Association of Alberta showed that very large capital projects in Alberta had an average 19% cost growth and 17% schedule growth (The Alberta Report - COAA Major Projects Benchmarking Study, February 2009).

Normal scheduling and estimating techniques use a single value for cost and schedule input (known as deterministic values) whereas in reality, everything has varying degrees of uncertainty. When disruptive events such as fire or work stoppages happen they have serious impacts on the project, but these events are rarely modeled in a deterministic plan.

Every risk will have a cost and schedule impact and cannot be managed without understanding the cumulative impact of all risks to the project. However, the likelihood of all the impacts occurring at the same time is extremely rare, so it is not just a matter of adding up the impacts of every risk. The critical path of the project rarely follows a fixed logic path but changes because of circumstances such as:

  • Bad weather
  • Delays
  • Failure to pass tests
  • External economic parameters

With all these variables, it is not surprising that the probability of achieving the deterministic project targets for dates and costs are usually less than 10%. For companies who have committed to major projects, this is unacceptable and puts them in a high risk financial position.

Solution

Primavera Risk Analysis, formerly known as Pertmaster®, is a full lifecycle risk analytics solution, integrating cost and schedule risk management. Primavera Risk Analysis provides a comprehensive means of determining confidence levels for project success, together with quick and easy techniques for determining contingency and risk response plans. Emerald is not only the place to go to aquire your Risk Analysis software, we also have many years of experience dealing with large project risk analysis and offer a full Risk Management Service Package

ROI

With Primavera Risk Analysis you will get an objective view of the required contingency to account for cost and schedule uncertainty. You will also gain an objective view in analyzing the cost effectiveness of risk response plans. These two views combined form the basis of a ‘risk adjusted schedule', which today is becoming the norm within the planning and scheduling process.

Experience

Emerald has a long and broad experience dealing in large project risk analysis including:

  • The risk analysis of one of the largest CO2 collection project in the world, which involved collecting CO2 through a trunk pipline gathering system and injecting it into depleted gas fields. There was significant new technology and geological uncertainties. Other notable features of this risk assessment were the following;
    • Regulatory NGO
    • Activist and landowner interventions
    • Political risks
  • A major new capital project incorporated into a plant during a turnaround. The mixing of cultures between capital projects and maintenance work was reflected in every aspect of the work and represented multiple threats. This analysis represented a challenge for diplomacy and human relations in the interview process.
  • A new separator and upgrader development. At the time of our risk analysis, engineering was peaking, infrastructure was being built and site clearing had commenced. A notable feature of this study was the extreme pressure on engineering and construction resources and galloping cost escalation. Mitigation actions included various labour incentives.
  • A new Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) plant. The engineering was at its height and piling is just starting. Our analysis was largely focused on the procurement and engineering processes that were intimately entwined and driving the construction process.
  • Analysis of the risks for a nuclear generation facility restart project. There were many risks associated with the availability and condition of equipment for this plant which was 40 years old at the time and the possibility of hidden defects.
  • A capital project that was running late and over budget where the owner and EPC disagreed about the best way to finish the project. Our analysis helped determine the most expedient path to the end of the project.

Other examples of our extensive risk analysis experience include the following projects:

  • Risk analysis of the likelihood of troubled projects completing on time and on budget
  • Risk Analysis for an Extraction Plant along with their Tailings Pond and Pipeline Network.
  • Risk Analysis of the transport of sulfur trains
  • Risk Analysis of the construction of an Ethanol plant
  • Risk Analysis of the treatment of tailings at an oil sands plant involving new technology to minimize environmental impact
  • Risk Analysis at an open cast mine that required the plant to be relocated.
  • Risk Analysis of the excavation under an existing, operating refining plant to reinforce foundations

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